Europe 2050 – A Glimpse into the Future of Brexit

Brexit: a lose/lose for Britain

The European Union’s reaction to Brexit will follow one of two routes.

Route 1

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

The continent’s nations will pull closer together and move forward towards the establishment of a

UNITED STATES OF EUROPE

a powerful bloc of half a billion people in fulfilment of the dreams of the founding fathers of the EU. A united Europe to take the lead in international politics , with a strong united stand on defence and away from the current instinct and emotion – propelled politics and diplomacy.

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CONSEQUENCES FOR BRITAIN

Estrangement for its European allies will cause economic damage to the UK and no discernible benefits. The economic losses of the EU in the short term would pale into insignificance compared to those the UK will face.

  • The UK will lose all trade privileges arising from EU membership and the free market.
  • UK companies will have less need to improve their productivity through investments and innovation resulting in a reduction in long-term economic growth. Studies estimate a long-term drop of real GDP (a FALL in the GDP by about 3% by 2030 and possibly by 5% by 2050)
  • No major change in immigration control. As an island outside the Schengen Agreement Britain was always in control of its borders regardless of the myths and factoids put out by the Brexiters.
  • For the REAL reasons behind Brexit and other similar trends in Europe read my previous blog
  • The recently negotiated concessions from the EU regarding immigration allowed Britain to withhold several entitlements from EU migrants until four years after they enter the UK and placed some caps on remittances from the UK. Britain needs immigration to run its economy regardless.
  • Sterling falls, stock market will fall in the medium and long term; debt interest rates will rise

NET ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS GAINS FOR BRITAIN: NIL!

Route 2

A RETURN TO THE PRE-WAR NATION STATE PREVALENCE – DOG EATS DOG

The Brexiters are proven right. Europe implodes into its pre-war component states each vying for their own self-interest. In other words, a return to the dark days of the supremacy of the NATION STATE. Back to the days of the Weimar Republic where dog eats dog with catastrophic consequences. Rule by populism leading to the emergence of dictatorship.

Brexit would also cause severe political damage and would weaken Europe geopolitically.

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LESSONS FROM HISTORY

“Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.”

17th Century

10,000,000 European lives sacrificed.
In just one year, 1638 there were five separate wars occurring in Europe.
There were only 4 years free of warfare in the whole century. The other 96 years all saw conflict of some kind.
The total number of separate wars was 42.

18th Century

20,000,000 European lives sacrificed.
Many other parts of the world were also dragged into Europe’s conflicts.
The total number of separate wars was 43.

19th Century

45 to 90,000,000 European lives sacrificed.
It also dragged many other parts of the world into its conflicts.
The total number of separate wars was 52.

20th Century

175,000,000 lives (estimate by: Zbigniev Brezinski.)
225,000,000 lives (estimate by Milton Litenberg)
258,000,000 lives (estimate by Rudolph J Rummel)
The total number of separate wars was 52.
Many other parts of the world were also dragged into Europe’s conflicts
The next major war might look like this which may put an end to the human species.

CONCLUSION

Economic prosperity and political Strength in unity; weakness and disarray in fragmentation.
NET POLITICAL GAINS FOR BRITAIN: NIL

1 reply
  1. omerfs
    omerfs says:

    you people, just forget about taking back Istanbul. We’ll never lose it. It’s ours and will be ours forever

    Reply

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